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This paper is concerned with international reserves. It makes two main points. Firstly, excess reserves cannot be regarded as a substitute for sound fundamentals because the former may destabilize the economic system in the longer term. Secondly, reserve accumulation financed by public debt can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139882
The Phillips curve, which posits a relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity, introduces a crucial trade-off between real and nominal objectives for the central bank. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, present evidence that forecasts of U.S. inflation from Phillips...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011609901
The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a transmission belt, both during the boom as during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271353
The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a transmission belt, both during the boom as during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003934687
made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
inflation which explains the relative success of inflation forecasting models based on global inflation (e.g., Ciccarelli and … that can be tested empirically in forecasting. Finally, we use pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts to assess the NOEM-BVAR at …—which include most conventional forecasting models based on domestic factors and also the recent models based on global inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971228
We use a broad-range set of inflation models and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability among 14 emerging market economies (EMEs) at different horizons (1 to 12 quarters ahead) with quarterly data over the period 1980Q1-2016Q4. We find, in general, that a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852068
inflation which explains the relative success of inflation forecasting models based on global inflation (e.g., Ciccarelli and … that can be tested empirically in forecasting. Finally, we use pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts to assess the NOEM-BVAR at … --- which include most conventional forecasting models based on domestic factors and also the recent models based on global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024945
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
This paper examines the international transmission effects that a positive supply shock in emerging economies may have on inflation in developed economies. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed to analyze the impact of a supply shock in an emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059275