Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic...

We examine Italian inflation rates and the Phillips curve with a very long-run perspective, one that covers the entire existence of the Italian lira from political unification (1861) to the entry of Italy in the European Monetary Union (end of 1998). We first study the volatility, persistence...

What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth...

The theme of this paper is whether there was a textbook-like inflation-output tradeoff in post-WWII Italy. We estimate both standard and time-varying parameter models of the relationship between inflation and the level of real economic activity over the 1949 to 2010 period and find no evidence...

This paper estimates potential output for seven countries using a multivariate version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter in which observations on inflation are used to help separate trend from cyclical movements in output. The potential series are estimated first on an aggregate basis and then by...

We study the political consequences of inflation surprises, focusing on votes for extremist and populist parties in 365 elections in 18 advanced economies since 1948. Inflation surprises are regularly followed by a substantial increase in vote shares of extremist, anti-system, and populist...

To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite the extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents evidence on this question from the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database covering 16 countries from 1870 to 2020. The results depend...

To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite an extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents new evidence from the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which covers return rates on housing and equity as well as consumer price...

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable...

We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b)...