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The concept of causality introduced by Wiener (1956) and Granger (1969) is defined in terms of predictability one … causality measures typically involve complex functions of model parameters in VAR and VARMA models, we propose a simple method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111024
To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis-specification, estimation uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605201
no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …, housing starts, and the term spread provide significant out-of-sample predictability for the distribution of core inflation … research shows that macroeconomic indicators do not add much to the predictability of the future mean inflation. This paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836192
(VAR) forecasting models. The analyses show that certain factor-augmented VAR models improve upon a simple univariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890976
Viewed over the whole available history of fiat money in Sweden, high levels of inflation have been present only over a short time span. It is only in the last two decades - the seventies and the eighties - that inflation has been high, at an average of eight percent on an annual basis. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584828
In this paper we estimate a structural VAR model to identify the causes of inflation in Ecuador. To examine the VAR … to the variables in the VAR. We differ from previous studies because we are able not only to identify the impact of each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005059103
exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the European transition economies. We estimate VAR model to investigate (1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553101
Time-varying exchange rate pass-through effects to domestic prices under fixed euro exchange rate perspective represent one of the most challenging implications of the common currency. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects associated with relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456836
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663290