The paper applies the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks by Im et al., [The Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005] in order to re-examine the validity of mean reversion in the inflation rates of 19 OECD countries for the time period...

The recent spike in inflation, unprecedented in the history of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), has had major consequences for all areas of the economy, including public finances. This paper aims to provide a detailed assessment of the effects of high inflation on fiscal accounts in the...

This paper presents a data-oriented analysis of the effects of different kinds of economic shocks on Chilean output growth and inflation over the last 40 years. Two important results highlight the role of trade openness and countercyclical monetary policies to explain structural changes in the...

We estimate indicators of aggregate demand and supply conditions based on a structural factor model using a large number of inflation and real activity measures for the United States. We identify demand and supply factors by imposing theoretically motivated sign restrictions on factor loadings....

An apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the US over the last 25 years, with price inflation remaining remarkably stable in spite of large fluctuations in the output gap and other measures of economic slack. This observation has led some to believe that...

An apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the US over the last 25 years, with price inflation remaining remarkably stable in spite of large fluctuations in the output gap and other measures of economic slack. This observation has led some to believe that...

We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data...

Is the SARB’s inflation target of 3-6% compatible with the 6% economic growth objective set by ASGISA? Estimations of inflation-growth bivariate Threshold Vector Autoregressive with corresponding bivariate Threshold Vector Error Correction (BTVEC-BTVAR) econometric models for sub-periods...

This paper surveys existing factor forecast applications for real economic activity and inflation by means of a meta-analysis and contributes to the current debate on the determinants of the forecast performance of large-scale dynamic factor models relative to other models. We find that, on...

We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area dataset with a regional breakdown that allows explicit estimation of the sectoral component of price changes (rather than interpreting the idiosyncratic component as sectoral as done in other papers). Employing a new method to extract factors from...