We explore the ability of core inflation to predict headline CPI annual inflation for a sample of 8 developing economies in Latin America during the period January 1995-May 2017. Our in-sample and out-of-sample results are roughly consistent in providing evidence of predictability in the great...

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. We use time series and panel cointegration techniques and show that the B-S effect works reasonably well in the transition economies under study during the period from 1991:Q1 to...

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Time series and panel cointegration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However,...

The objective of the paper is to analyse the nominal and real convergence process in Estonia drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) framework. A 15-sectoral breakdown for GDP and a 5-digit level CPI data disaggregation with over 260 items is used for the period 1993:Q1 to 2002:Q1 to show that...

Abstract in Russian:Документ включает в себя подробное описание текущих внутренних и внешних макроэкономических условий, а также согласованный прогноз. Анализ...

The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading...

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Time series and panel cointegration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However,...

Ukrainian exports can be explained by standard demand theory in the long run. Using the Johansen procedure the data do not reject the hypothesis of a unit foreign-production elasticity of Ukrainian exports, which are rather price-elastic inputs for foreign producers. It is argued that due to...

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate appreciations/depreciations and inflation by estimating nonlinear time series models. Motivated by theoretical and empirical results in the literature, the paper proposes new econometric models that can...

The effectiveness of exchange rate adjustments depends critically on the extent to which depreciations "pass through" to inflation, an effect that is known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). In particular, if an exchange rate depreciation does not result in a lasting change in relative...