The quite recent (2007-2009) global financial crisis (GFC), which was caused by a mix of business, regulatory, supervisory, and macroeconomic (in terms of sub-optimal fiscal and/or monetary policies) failures, had a negative impact both on the financial system – with the failure, through the...

This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our...

Summarizing Hendry's forty years of work on taming uncertainty is "clear and distinct": Test, test, test. Sure - but test what? Test the maintained assumptions of the disturbances. Test the parameter restrictions of a given model. Test the explanatory power of a model against a rival model. In...