Faust, Jon; Wright, Jonathan H. - In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting : volume 2, part A, (pp. 2-56). 2013
that judgmental survey forecasts outperform model-based ones, often by a wide margin. A very simple forecast that is just a … glide path between the survey assessment of inflation in the current-quarter and the long-run survey forecast value turns … out to be competitive with the actual survey forecast and thereby does about as well or better than model-based forecasts …
