In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...

The distributive trades, consisting of wholesaling and retailing, are a key sector of the economy. As the main interface between producers and consumers, the sector is particularly important from a monetary policy point of view: this is where most consumer goods prices are ultimately set....

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting inflation with the ability of quantile regression to...

In this paper we explore the link between the intensity of product market competition and inflation rates across EU countries and sectors. We consider long-term averages of inflation rates in order to remove the cyclical behavior of inflation over time and as alternative proxies of competition...

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) currently only includes rentals for housing (paid by tenants) and auxiliary housing expenditures (paid by both tenants and owners). The inclusion of an item for owner-occupied housing (OOH) would be desirable for both representativeness and...