Inflation-indexed securities would appear to be the most direct source of information about inflation expectations and real interest rates" (Bernanke, 2004). In this paper we study the term structure of real interest rates, expected inflation and inflation risk premia using data on prices of...

This paper estimates the inflation risk premium using data on prices of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) over the period 2000-2008. The estimation approach used is arbitrage free, largely model free, and easy to implement. It also distinguishes between TIPS yields and real yields...

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we...