models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …