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Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
Claar, Victor V - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002
Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658
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Monetary policy shocks in open economies and the inflation unemployment trade-off : the case of the Euro Area
Ribba, Antonio - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-12
In this paper, we show that in order to obtain a sound identification of Euro Area monetary policy shocks, one needs to deal with the interaction of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In other words, a proper identification of monetary policy shocks for an open economy like...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168711
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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
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Estimating the NAIRU in Australia
Ruberl, Heather; Ball, Meika; Lucas, Larissa; … - 2021
The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides … an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be … used to forecast wages growth at the Australian Treasury. Australia's NAIRU was previously thought to be around 5 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012511675
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Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions
Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
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A review of James Forder's "Macroeconomics and the Phillips curve myth"
Hoover, Kevin D. - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602776
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Real wage dynamics and the Phillips Curve
Whelan, Karl - School of Economics, University College Dublin - 1999
traditional real wage formulation. Implications for the recent behavior of the NAIRU are explored. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269327
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An Alternative Interpretation of the Recent U.S. Inflation Performance
Apel, Mikael; Jansson, Per - 2000
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321308
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An Alternative Interpretation of the Recent U.S. Inflation Performance
Apel, Mikael; Jansson, Per - Sveriges Riksbank - 2000
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190795
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An alternative interpretation of the recent U.S. inflation performance
Apel, Mikael; Jansson, Per - 2000
An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584497