This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the aggregate price level and the dynamics of inflation. I compare the model's predictions with those of a perfectly competitive, flexible price `benchmark' model (corresponding to the model of...

The objective of this paper is to provide an optimizing model of wage and price setting consistent with U.S. data. The paper first investigates the predictions of an optimizing labor supply model for the aggregate nominal wage, taking as given the evolution of prices and quantities. In this part...

This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the dynamics of inflation. Taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation and labor productivity to approximate the evolution of marginal costs, I determine the path of prices predicted by...

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a wide range of forecast horizons and allow for estimated as...