Evidence from a large and growing empirical literature strongly suggests that there have been changes in inflation and output dynamics in the United Kingdom. This is largely based on a class of econometric models that allow for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities of shocks. While...

We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation...

According to the Bank/GfK NOP survey, near-term inflation expectations have fallen markedly over the past year from elevated levels. In part, that may have reflected a reduction in households' perceptions of current inflation. But it is also likely to have reflected weaker demand prospects....

Inflation has been volatile in the past three years. This article examines how that has affected households' attitudes to inflation and to monetary policy more generally. Some of the volatility in inflation has fed through to households' perceptions of inflation, as measured by the Bank/GfK NOP...

This paper uses a ‘trendy' approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK...