We assess the stability of the unemployment gap parameter using linear dynamic Phillips curve models for the United States. In this study, we allow the unemployment gap parameter to be time-varying such that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We consider different...

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing views about the natural rate hypothesis but have left an important question unanswered. Why was the Fed so slow to implement the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural...

The 'expectations critique', usually attributed to Friedman or Phelps and dated towards the end of the 1960s, in fact originates much earlier.  And rather than being an insight properly attributable to a particular individual, it was, by that time, a commonplace of economic discussion.  This...

The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001 - 2013 provided by all experts do not provide...

Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling behaviour of inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the...

This chapter examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins by defining persistence — emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the...

In this paper we test a new empirical relationship between wage and inflation. We introduce the concept of a cumulative wage gap, meaning the cumulative gap between the current wage and a maximum peak wage value in the past. In a crisis, people relate to their peak gains in the immediate past....