Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price...

In the first part of the paper we present some classical actuarial models (the collective and individual risk model) and the probability theory behind. A discussion of pros and cons of each approach leads to an alternative approach where the losses on each policy is modeled by an individual...

During the year 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina has begun to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing the authorities of good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper...

This paper studies U.S. inflation adjustment speed to aggregate technology shocks and to monetary policy shocks in a Bayesian VAR model with a large number of macroeconomic variables. According to the model estimated on the 1960-2007 sample, inflation adjusts much faster to aggregate technology...

In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) and their determinants. The model is estimated using Bayesian...

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...

In this study, we investigate relative performance of various non-linear models against that of an autoregressive model in forecasting future inflation. We find that non-linear models have trivial forecast superiority over the univariate autoregressive model in terms of central forecast...

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...

In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models...

In this study, we investigate forecasting performance of various univariate and multivariate models in predicting inflation for different horizons. We design our forecast experiment for the post-oil boom years of 2010-2014 and compare forecasting ability of the different models with that of...