Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching back to 1870 for 19 countries, our systematic analysis casts doubt on...

Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching back to 1870 for 19 countries, our systematic analysis casts doubt on...

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based...

The paper aims to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the case of Romanian economy. The empirical model estimates simultaneously the potential output and the output gap; the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical unemployment as an Okun Law type relationship; and the New Phillips...

Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...

In this paper I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank's commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus its on the impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic control method, which allows me to compute the...

The implementation of economic reforms under new economic policies in India was associated with a paradigmatic shift in monetary and fiscal policy. While monetary policies were solely aimed at "price stability" in the neoliberal regime, fiscal policies were characterized by the objective of...