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The present paper contains a brief presentation and analysis, in a historical perspective through the lens of the recent major crises, of the legal framework governing the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as well as current developments and challenges ahead. It is structured in three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077291
This study discusses recent and current conditions relating to financial stability in the euro area, developing, in particular, on the impact of the current “inflation crisis” on financial stability vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it addresses two related priorities for the Single Resolution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258303
We propose and test a new explanation for the rise and fall of the Great Inflation, a defining event in macroeconomics. We argue that its rise was due to the imposition of binding deposit rate ceilings under the law known as Regulation Q, and that its fall was due to the removal of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841530
Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the economy. Thus, there is a premium on adaptation in the forecast process, in order to avoid sequences of forecast failure. This paper evaluates a sequence of inflation forecasts in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284441
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126912
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naiv͏̈e" forecasts, and forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008936407
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210321
We introduce a new approach to model the market smile for inflation-linked derivatives by defining the Quadratic Gaussian Year-on-Year inflation model -- the QGY model. We directly define the model in terms of a year-on-year ratio of the inflation index on a discrete tenor structure, which,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081107
This study analyses empirically the link between real house prices and key macro variables like prices, output and interest rates for ten OECD countries. We find out that a monetary policy shock lowers real house prices in all ten countries, where the interest rate shock explains between 12 and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034973
The price puzzle is the association in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) of a contractionary shock to monetary policy with persistent increases in the price level. Various explanations have been investigated separately in the framework of small SVARs without any common set of variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152728