non-voting member following strategic motives in forecasting, i.e. non-voting members use their forecast to influence … forecast if they favor tighter policy and underpredict inflation if the favor looser policy. These findings are consistent with … policy deliberation. -- inflation forecast ; forecast errors ; monetary policy ; monetary committee ; Federal Reserve …

time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside … unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and … higher variance around the consensus forecast …

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … avoid obfuscation of the sources of forecast ability, the model is intentionally kept simple, although extensions for … improving and increasing the robustness of the forecast procedure are also discussed. …

recommended that BES confidence indicators should be employed with some level of caution in making decision since the precision of …

, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is … allows both the forecasting model and the coefficients to change over time. Based on this framework, we systematically … measure of the forecasting performance. We carefully assess which predictors are relevant for forecasting at different points …