This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional...

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

The European Central Bank is planning a gradual reduction of government bond purchases under the asset purchase program it initiated in 2015. The present study by the German Institute for Economic Research analyzes the potential macroeconomic implications of different exit strategies. The...

The very expansive and unconventional monetary policy of the ECB reduced the tensions of the Euro debt crisis at the price of persistently very low interest rates. While the ECB was right to act at the peak of the crisis, the risks of the low-interest rate environment become increasingly...

This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and...

Most alternative blueprints for European Monetruy Union (EMU) differ in their opinions about convergence requirements or the need for binding fiscal rules and controls of individual national governments' debt policies, but there is, if not complete consensus, widespread agreement that the...

There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risks in banking has shifted from a national level to a European level. Whereas wholesale financial markets are considered to be highly integrated within...