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We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a "textbook" model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves. In the textbook model with only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159954
While autonomous central banks in large open economies are usually predisposed to use monetary rules to target inflation, output, and long-term interest rates, central banks in small open economies face peculiar challenges in their attempts to attain and maintain liquidity, stable prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288324
The stable money demand function is a crucial policy tool of the monetary policy of any central bank, which links the monetary sector of an economy to its real sector. Notably, after the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the role of money has come to be envisaged as an essential issue while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500858
We ask whether uncertainty about interest rates is important for economic activity. Causal effects of uncertainty on … the economy are examined through the lens of a small VAR where the assumption that uncertainty and real activity cannot … contemporaneously react to each other is indeed in line with the data. Our measure of uncertainty stems from professional forecasts of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999098
We ask whether uncertainty about interest rates is important for economic activity. Effects of interest rate … uncertainty on the economy are examined through the lens of a small VAR where the assumption that uncertainty can affect real … activity contemporaneously but not vice versa is indeed in line with the data. Our measure of uncertainty stems from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964352
An alternative formula to the Quantity Theory uses monetary aggregates to measure changes in the value of money which explain virtually all variation of future long-term inflation, enabling significantly more accurate inflation forecasts than consensus with important implications for monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970015
Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.”. The paper combines a monetary model and a growth model to explain low inflation and project its continued decline.The monetary model forecast in 2016 central banks would fail to reach 2% targets, which has been true. The model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242574
What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even the 2% level to which we are accustomed will cut an investor's portfolio by over 17% during a decade. This 2% level is the target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0%...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099903
Analyzing inflation as a change in the value of a currency, rather than changes in prices of goods and services, provides perspective on three fundamental sources of inflation.A Money Value Formula produces a significant statistical fit with forward long-term inflation rates using long lags of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896591
Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions have been a prediction since early 2016.The Money Value Formula analyzes the unit value of a currency solely as a function of long lags of monetary aggregates. The Formula...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858878