implementation of Svensson's concept of optimal inflation forecast targeting strategy (IFT) and determines what the chosen central …

relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the … target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by …