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Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities
Ajello, Andrea; Benzoni, Luca; Schwinn, Makena; Timmer, … - 2022
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013279282
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Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics
Harding, Martín; Lindé, Jesper; Trabandt, Mathias - 2022
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544443
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Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities
Ajello, Andrea; Benzoni, Luca; Schwinn, Makena; Timmer, … - 2022
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields’ fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081117
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Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities
Ajello, Andrea; Benzoni, Luca; Schwinn, Makena; Timmer, … - 2022
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields’ fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404380
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Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics
Harding Affeld, Martín Ignacio; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2022 - Last updated: December 13, 2022
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013466150
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Monetary policy transmission and trade-offs in the United States : old and new
Hofmann, Boris; Peersman, Gert - 2017 - First version: July 2017, this version: October 2017
This study shows that, in the United States, the effects of monetary policy on credit and housing markets have become …. Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary policy may therefore have become associated with greater fluctuations in credit and … housing markets, whereas stabilizing credit and house prices may have become less costly in terms of macroeconomic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754207
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Evaluating a central bank's recent forecast failure
Nymoen, Ragnar - 2005
Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the economy. Thus, there is a premium on adaptation in the forecast process, in order to avoid sequences of forecast failure. This paper evaluates a sequence of inflation forecasts in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284441
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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank
Falch, Nina Skrove; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2011
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naiv͏̈e" forecasts, and forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008936407
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Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics : Why so Low for so Long?
Abdih, Yasser - 2018
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
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Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019 : cyclical and structural drivers
Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; … - 2021
From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012650860