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Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
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We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …
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preference (RAP) as well as inflation avoidance preference (IAP) is established. And it is found that RAP is dominant over IAP …, thus confirming nonlinearities in reaction function which in the present case turns out to be concave in inflation and … and negative inflation and output gap differ over long time horizons thus confirming asymmetric policy preferences …
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