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This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011833
This paper identifies the output gap using the theoretical definition of the gap within a Phillips curve. The results show that the output gap is large and persistent. Furthermore, the output gap is not correlated with the stochastic trend which is similar to the asumption used in the unobserved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056569
This paper present a variety of approaches to estimating error-correction relationships between CPI inflation and selected commodity price indices, based on their ability to to forecast out-of-sample predictions of CPI inflation. Depending on specification, commodity prices have marginal value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403836
were larger in countries with more international trade openness and greater presence of foreign banks. In the recovery … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques … and procedures, to improve their ability to monitor near-term developments and to better account for international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
forecast nominal GDP. The model is fully estimated in one step using a non-linear Kalman filter, which is applied to obtain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401309
Not being doubtful of the fact that Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators assessing the economic well-being of a nation, this paper seeks to develop a model to forecastmonthly inflation for Liberia using Time Series Econometric tools and concepts. The paper used a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865527
evolve as it did: Namely a strong and broad increase in international prices, and in energy prices in particular. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577654
evolve as it did: Namely a strong and broad increase in international prices, and in energy prices in particular. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015054212
Many empirical studies have found that interest rate have a positive effect on the price level. This paper pursues an obvious, but neglected explanation: interest payments are a cost of production that is at least in part passed on to costumers. A model shows that the cost-push effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266536
In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320755