The macroeconomic models used by major institutions including the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to predict the inflation surge during 2021-2023. The output gap, the unemployment gap, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation expectations did not give...

We explore the short-term macrodynamics of stabilization policy at the effective lower bound (ELB) of the nominal interest rate, in an environment characterized by heterogenous and endogenously time-varying private-sector output and inflation expectations driven by evolutionary dynamics. We show...

Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid this, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for otherwise linear models with OBCs. Our main result gives...

We present the first necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be a unique perfect-foresight solution to an otherwise linear dynamic model with occasionally binding constraints, given a fixed terminal condition. We derive further conditions on the existence of a solution in such models....

We present the first necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be a unique perfect-foresight solution to an otherwise linear dynamic model with occasionally binding constraints, given a fixed terminal condition. We derive further results on the existence of a solution in the presence of...

Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory experiments are to be used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is to document whether different measures of inflation expectations, based on various categories of agents...