In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new ML techniques proposed here,...

The concept of causality introduced by Wiener (1956) and Granger (1969) is defined in terms of predictability one period ahead. This concept can be generalized by considering causality at a given horizon h, and causality up to any given horizon h [Dufour and Renault (1998)]. This generalization...

Using NCRIEF farmland and timberland smoothed indices over the period from 1992Q1 to 2012Q3 and a new de-smoothing approach offered by Fisher et al. (1994), we explore the mean-variance diversification features of farmland and timberland assets. Our empirical results show that diversification...

A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, DNWR for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or a floor" for the aggregate wage growth at positive or negative levels. Aggregate wage growth may...

A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, DNWR for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or a floorʺ for the aggregate wage growth at positive or negative levels. Aggregate wage growth...

A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, dnwr for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or “a floor” for the aggregate wage growth at positive or negative levels. Aggregate wage...

A number of recent studies have documented extensive downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for job stayers in many OECD countries. However, DNWR for individual workers may induce downward rigidity or "a floor" for the aggregate wage growth at positive or negative levels. Aggregate wage growth...

In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To...

Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state...

Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state...