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This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate in a simple New Keynesian model with occasionally binding collateral constraints that intermediate-good firms face on hiring labor. The paper finds that the optimal long-run annual inflation rate is around 1.5% if the economy is hit by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036866
We propose and test a new explanation for the rise and fall of the Great Inflation, a defining event in macroeconomics. We argue that its rise was due to the imposition of binding deposit rate ceilings under the law known as Regulation Q, and that its fall was due to the removal of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841530
Over the past nine months, I published a series of research papers highlighting the striking similarities between the current burst of inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the inflation that Americans experienced 100 years ago when World War I and the Great Influenza abruptly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291438
presented along with the recent evidence supporting well-coordinated interactions between these risk premiums for Poland …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014067010
, Poland, and Slovakia. For this purpose, a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model with sign-zero restrictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015075531
The present paper contains a brief presentation and analysis, in a historical perspective through the lens of the recent major crises, of the legal framework governing the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), as well as current developments and challenges ahead. It is structured in three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077291
significantly inflation volatility in Poland. I derive this result from an estimated DSGE model of a small open economy. GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987476
We assess the impact of macroprudential measures on macroeconomic stability using a DSGE model in which firms can access both direct and indirect financing. The model is calibrated with data from the euro area. We compare two different macroprudential rules (time-invariant and counter-cyclical)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014631259
We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the "missing disinflation" during the Great Recession. We apply a vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through sign restrictions. Our main finding is that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546785
In a small open economy model with traded and non-traded goods this paper characterizes conditions under which interest rate rules induce aggregate instability by generating multiple equilibria. These conditions depend not only on how aggressively the rule responds to inflation, but also on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014073812