A Phillips Curve (PC) framework is utilized to study the challenging post-1985 disinflation process in Israel. The estimated PC is stable and has forecasting power. Based on endogenous structural break tests we find that actual and expected inflation are co-breaking. We argue that the step-like...

After the introduction of a stabilization program Israeli inflation decreased from 400% in 1985 to 2% in 2013. This paper analyzes how the remarkable transition process of Israel's disinflation took place. We reinforce the existing hypothesis that inflationmoved in distinct steps characterized...

This paper is an application of the framework developed in Pinkwart (2010a), which allows to analyze changes of the monetary policy regime under uncertain inflation dynamics that alter the steady state properties of the underlying model as well as the stochastic dependencies between model...

We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before the Great Recession as a function of the reduction in uncertainty about the monetary policy maker's behaviour. The model features ambiguity-averse agents and ambiguity regarding...

This paper replicates the main analysis of Svensson (2015) with some expansion to the original analysis, mainly for the United States. Overall, the replication exercise successfully confirms the conclusions of Svensson (2015). In both Sweden and the United States, empirical evidence sup- ports...

We investigate the regime-dependent and time-varying behavior of inflation expectations and the uncertainties of expectations in Turkey through threshold regressions, and lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) based time-varying Granger causality tests. Results suggest state-dependent...

We construct an empirical test of whether the anticipation of adoption of inflation targeting affects the inflation rate. We observe that most of the central banks adopt the regime after first achieving significant disinflation. With pre-inflation-targeting-disinflation, initial targets are met...

Expectations of firms and households about the future trajectory of inflation tend to influence their current investment and consumption/saving decisions, and the price and wage-setting behaviour. By firmly anchoring inflation expectations, monetary policy can prevent a wage-price spiral and...

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....

The objective of this paper is to test empirical validity of Fear of Floating hypothesis for Turkey after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We start applying methodologies developed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002) and Ball and Reyes (2004, 2008) to check the probabilities of changes in exchange...