The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

This paper examines the properties of interest rate rules aimed at controlling aggregate price inflation. Policies are … compared in two models having either flexible or sticky inflation The latter is assumed to derive from a traditional, adaptive …-expectations augmented Phillips curve. The flexible inflation model derives from the modem view, due to Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977), that …

linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due … properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has … inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity …

inflation as one component of future real wages. This paper scrutinizes whether countries in CEE that officially announce an … inflation target are tempted to act time-inconsistently and switch from the announced inflation target to an exchange rate … target in order to sustain higher output via surprise inflation. If market participants discover the time-inconsistency, they …

This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New … Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation … persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is …

Inflation persistence or ‘inertia’ has important consequences for monetary policy. Inflation which does not get … influence on inflation persistence by its credibility and responses in the face of inflationary shocks. In this study, we use a … flexible, time-varying parameter approach to analyze inflation persistence in the United Kingdom and United States during 1880 …

This paper investigates monetary policy and basic macroeconomic relationships involving output, inflation rate …, interest rate, and money in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation, it compares three different periods …: moderately-increasing inflation (1975-1985), high inflation (1985-1994), and low inflation (1994-2000). The main results are the …

fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary … that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central … illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest …

fiscal stance and inflation using crosscountry data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary … that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central … illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest …