We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...

1. Introduction -- 2. Forgotten worlds: the stagflation of the 1970s -- 3. From Volcker to China: The “Great Moderation” begins -- 4. Houses made of sand: The “Global Financial Crisis” -- 5. Trojan horses: the long shadow of the euroarea sovereign crisis -- 6. COVID 19: the fiscal and...

What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that the long-run average. Their standard deviation is...