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Precommitment, transparency and monetary policy
Geraats, Petra M.; Geraats, Petra - 2001
Conventional wisdom says that commitment eliminates the inflationary bias of monetary policy. However, this paper shows that the inflation bias can persist even when the central bank commits. A simple model is presented in which the central bank precommits by setting the policy instrument, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001612960
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Precommitment, transparency and monetary policy
Geraats, Petra M. - 2001
Üblicherweise wird angenommen, dass ein Inflationsbias verschwindet, wenn sich eine Zentralbank glaubwürdig im voraus … Modell dargestellt, in dem die Zentralbank im voraus ihre Instrumente festlegt und die anschließende Anpassung der … Zeitinkonsistenzproblem mehr auftritt. Ursache ist die Unsicherheit über die ökonomischen Störungen, auf die die Zentralbank reagiert. Nur …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419400
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The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections : a state dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544414
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The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections : a state dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508654
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The bias of the ECB inflation projections : a State-dependent analysis
Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2024
We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532443
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ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty
Fernandes, Cecilia Melo - 2021
This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603073
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Modern Challenges of Monetary Policy Strategies : Inflation and Devaluation Influence on Economic Development of the Country
Abuselidze, George - 2020
The article discusses causes and socio-economic peculiarities of one of the most difficult and undesirable condition for the economy-inflation and devaluation. The purpose of the research is to analyze the socio-economic results of inflation and devaluation in Georgia and to determine the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835155
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Optimal Central Bank Transparency
van der Cruijsen, Carin - 2011
Should central banks increase their degree of transparency any further? We show that there is likely to be an optimal intermediate degree of central bank transparency. Up to this optimum more transparency is desirable: it improves the quality of private sector inflation forecasts. But beyond the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714128
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Reading between the lines : using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB
Paloviita, Maritta; Haavio, Markus; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; … - 2020
We measure the tone (sentiment) of the ECB's Governing Council regarding economic outlook at the time of each monetary policy meeting and use this information together with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239727
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Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) : new evidence
Weber, Christoph S. - 2016
The last decades have shown a tendency towards higher central bank transparency. It became customary for central bankers to explain their monetary policy decisions in detail and for them to publish inflation forecasts. This leads to the question of how central bank transparency is entangled with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011525911