Analyzing inflation as a change in the value of a currency, rather than changes in prices of goods and services, provides perspective on three fundamental sources of inflation.A Money Value Formula produces a significant statistical fit with forward long-term inflation rates using long lags of...

An alternative formula to the Quantity Theory uses monetary aggregates to measure changes in the value of money which explain virtually all variation of future long-term inflation, enabling significantly more accurate inflation forecasts than consensus with important implications for monetary...

Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions have been a prediction since early 2016.The Money Value Formula analyzes the unit value of a currency solely as a function of long lags of monetary aggregates. The Formula...

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental, market-derived, and monetary model. Despite differences between forecasting approaches, models produced generally similar results. Long-term forecasts were more accurate than...

Two extraordinary inflation surprises of the last generation were the longstanding inflation shortfall from central bank targets and now the pandemic inflationary.Inflation shortfalls can be attributed to characteristics of monetary systems represented by a model with increasing inelasticity,...

This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience...

We evaluate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into euro area (EA) inflation by estimating an open economy New Keynesian model with Bayesian methods. In the model ERPT is incomplete because of local currency pricing and distribution services, with the latter allowing to distinguish between...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...