This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made....

This paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that endoge­nously generates inflation persistence. We assume that although firms change prices periodically, they face convex costs that preclude optimal adjustment. In essence, the model assumes that price stickiness arises...

The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov switching model. These turning points are the event...