The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another … 2012 and 2015, and that in order to keep inflation under control the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should link money supply to … real non-oil GDP growth. -- Inflation modelling ; Inflation forecasting ; Money demand ; Money supply ; Azerbaijan …

The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another … 2012 and 2015, and that in order to keep inflation under control the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should link money supply to … based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly …

in forecasting future inflation. We find that non-linear models have trivial forecast superiority over the univariate … central forecast accuracy which is in line with the previous literature on Azerbaijan during the post-oil boom years. However … autoregressive model in terms of central forecast accuracy. They also perform poorly when their forecasts are measured against those …

for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money … kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation … forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the …

This paper modifies a P-star model to forecast inflation using an argument that is in line with the concept of “price …-of-sample forecast results show that, at least since the early 1990s, money supply/government debt ratio has been a useful predictor of U ….S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. The paper also argues that inflation dynamics in the U.S. since the early 1960s can …

reliable short-run inflation forecast and with regard to the latter we incur the need for a stable demand for money function …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

The paper uses dynamic quantile regressions to estimate and forecast the conditional distribution of euro …-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and … distribution. Overall, the quantile regression approach describes the distribution of inflation better than a benchmark univariate …

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging task. In this paper we assume that the core inflation components … evolve as a multivariate local level process. This model, which is theoretically attractive for modelling inflation dynamics … estimates, as we show in a Monte Carlo exercise. In an application to euro-area inflation we find that our forecasts compare …

This paper analyzes the efficacy of SARIMA models in view of forecasting the inflation rates in the Turkish economy. We … perform rigorous tests on the stationarity and show that seasonality in the Turkish inflation rate is both deterministic and … stochastic in nature, with the latter form dominating the inflation process. Further, we provide the first study that tests for …