Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of...

Typescript (photocopy).

As in Caporale and Pittis, this paper finds significant evidence supporting the hypothesis of long-run equilibrium relationships between inflation rates in countries which participate in the ERM. However, the results differ in several important respects. First, the evidence rejects a dynamic...

The article explores Ireland's participation in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System since mid-1986. It has been found that membership of the ERM per se did not have the expected moderating influence on interest rates. Ireland's participation in the ERM was intended...

A number of researchers have recently argued that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve matches the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. The theoretical motivation for these...

Includes bibliographical references (p. 17).

During the question and answer session, Peter Drucker addresses the following: the aftermath of German inflation, age structure and savings rate, and placing people where their strengths can produce results. Irving Friedman adds that we have very little information and knowledge for making...

This paper provides an empirical investigation into the determinants and stability of the aggregate wage inflation process in the United States over the 1967-2000 period. Using compensation per hour as the measure of wages, we specify a Phillips curve model that links wage growth to its past...

Cogley and Sargent provide us with a very useful tool for empirical macroeconomics: a Gibbs sampler for the estimation of VARs with drifting coefficients and volatilities. The authors apply the tool to a VAR with three variables-inflation, unemployment, and the nominal interest rate-and two...

The authors consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second,...