/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where … previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of … inflation, with these expectations anchored around 5% historically but declining since the financial crisis. This trend suggests …

sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly … been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation … future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and …

This brief examines two issues of current interest concerning inflation: (1) whether "well-anchored" expectations will … help to restrain inflation's decline and whether an "un-anchoring" of expectations could lead to undesirably high inflation … and (2) to what extent output (or utilization) gaps are useful components of empirical models of inflation and, if they …

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation … multi-period forecast and, thereby, the expected momentum of inflation. Using number survey-based data for the US and UK, we …

This letter uses consumer survey data to estimate expectations-augmented Phillips curves with inflation expectations … disaggregated by socioeconomic and demographic groups. The inflation expectations of high-income, college-educated, male, and … working-age people play a larger role in inflation dynamics than do the expectations of other groups of consumers or of …

This paper uses an econometric model and Bayesian estimation to reverse engineer the path of inflation expectations … common measures of expected inflation available from surveys or computed from financial data. In particular, they exhibit the … strongest correlation with the inflation forecasts of the respondents in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The …

and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s … information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the …

It has been argued that higher levels of inflation lead to greater uncertainty about future inflation and to greater … dispersion of relative prices. In either case, inflation could reduce the efficiency of market prices in coordinating economic … activities. This paper shows that the rise of inflation in Colombia, from low levels in the 1950s to average rates of 18 …

Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory experiments are to be … used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is to document whether different measures of inflation … information, suggesting the presence of some form of bounded rationality or information imperfections. Finally, lagged inflation …

This paper constructs regime-switching models for estimating the probability of inflation returning to its relatively … inflation, combining the recent non-parametric forecast error distribution with parametric information from the model. The outer … tails of the prediction intervals depend importantly on the probability inflation is in its high-variance, high …