This paper discusses an index of perceived inflation developed by Brachinger. Brachinger's index is not based on a survey and measurement of consumers' price perception. It is a model calculation derived from a number of more or less plausible ad hoc assumptions. We find that the results of...

How do households form their inflation expectations? We show the price changes individual consumers observe while shopping are a key determinant of their expectation for overall inflation. We use individual non-durable consumption choices in the Nielsen Homescan Panel to construct...

This comprehensive study delves into the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HCPI) behavior across European economies from the early 2000s to the post-pandemic period. By analyzing the patterns of convergence and divergence in HCPI persistence, the study aims to uncover the common external and...

Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers,...

A common practice in studies using inflation forecasts is to approximate fixed-horizon forecasts with fixed-event ones. Here we show that this may be problematic. In a panel of US inflation forecast data that allows us to compare the two, the approximation results in a mean absolute...

This paper introduces an indicator of consumers' inflation expectations based on data from the National Consumer Confidence Survey of Mexico (ENCO, in Spanish), and tests its predictive power over CPI inflation and other measures of inflation that correspond to smaller baskets of consumer goods,...

Inflation perceived by consumers may differ from official statistics particularly due to different baskets of goods and services lay people and statisticians consider and by consumer loss aversion to price increases. Such effects, as suggested by the Prospect Theory, are confirmed in many...

Since February 2003 ISAE collects quantitative inflation opinions, within its monthly survey on Italian consumers. Data confirms the severe overestimation of inflation already emerged in previous studies. Quantitative replies are in line with more traditional qualitative evaluations, indicating...

Assessing underlying inflation developments is crucial for a correct calibration of the monetary policy stance. To monitor the adjustment in the path of euro area inflation towards the ECB's definition of price stability, we select a number of indicators of price dynamics in the area. We then...

Several studies have found that the levels of inflation perceived by households persistently exceed observed inflation levels measured by official Consumer Price Indices. In this paper, we revisit the issue based on rich and previously unexplored household-level data from the Danish part of the...