In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity are analyzed within a class of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. First, the misspecification effects of mechanical removal of low frequency movements of these series on posterior inference of a basic PC model are analyzed...

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...

Central bank credibility is critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The measures of credibility that are based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an alternative measure that allows us to track the evolution...