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Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...
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/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where … previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of … inflation, with these expectations anchored around 5% historically but declining since the financial crisis. This trend suggests …
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inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …
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