This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally … adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

, however, is the incompleteness of its reform process: the boom-bust nature of its growth, persistently high inflation, delays …, to reduce inflation to single digits by the end of 2002. Since then, though, Turkey has experienced two financial crises … and redesigned its stabilization program to bring inflation down more gradually. This collection analyzes the nature of …

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the … credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This … study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as …

This paper explores bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty by observing monthly data of 11 Eastern … European countries. The methodological approach comprises two steps. First, inflation uncertainty series have been created by … choosing an optimal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity- (GARCH) type model. Subsequently, inflation and …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

This paper aims to show why Irving Fisher's own data on interest rates and inflation in New York, London, Paris, Berlin … changes in inflation, not even in the long run. In Fisher's data, interest rates have more persistence than inflation and … change less than inflation over time. The Fisher effect is a misnomer unless it is taken to refer to what Fisher actually …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …