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Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

Anufriev, Mikhail; Assenza, Tiziana; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2009

and Hommes (1997). The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules, on … agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal …, expectations rule is part of the ecology of forecasting strategies. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358

Economic uncertainty and subjective inflation expectations

Rossmann, Tobias - 2019

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114

News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; … - 2019 - This version: 20 February 2019

We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., fiscal policy, health, and politics, are good predictors of households' stated inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086

Sticky expectations and consumption dynamics

Carroll, Chris; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jirka; … - 2018

Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856412

Behavioral learning equilibria

Hommes, Cars H.; Zhu, Mei - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191433

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

We provide evidence on the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of attention to the macroeconomy using tailored panel surveys of German firms and households. Draw-ing on novel measures of attention based on open-ended questions collected before and during a historic shock to inflation, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382474

The term structure of expectations

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2021

Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381

The effects of forward guidance: theory with measured expectations

Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2021

We study the effects of forward guidance with an approach that combines theory with experimental estimates of counterfactual expectation adjustments. Guided by the model, we conduct experiments with representative samples of the US population to study how households adjust their expectations in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663089

Learning About Monetary Policy Rules When Long-Horizon Expectations Matter

Preston, Bruce J. - 2015

This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. Following a considerable literature on learning, it is assumed that private agents seek to maximize their objectives...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032843

Anchored inflation expectations

Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel - 2021 - April 5, 2021

forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597643

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