This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the...

This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment administered in 2022, we examine adjustment of inflation...

Although in modern monetary economics it is usually assumed that inflation expectations play a prominent role when economic agents set prices and wages, the empirical evidence for this link is scarce. This paper aims to identify the effect of changes in inflation expectations on prices and wages...

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about “prices in general” to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of...

We compare the formation of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations from questions asked either in terms of price changes or in terms of the inflation rate in a new socio-economic household survey established at the University of Hamburg. In addition to socio-demographic...

The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the main characteristics of expectations of professional forecasters, households and firms in respect of Hungarian inflation trends. In countries where an inflation targeting regime is in place, inflation expectations are of key importance from...

We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals...

We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals...

We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals...

We study how different forms of communication influence the inflation expectations of individuals in a randomized controlled trial. We first solicit individuals’ inflation expectations in the Nielsen Homescan panel and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation....