Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel...

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces...

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the responses: Shifting,...

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting,...

The gap between actual and perceived inflation is one of the more unexpected consequences of the euro changeover in January 2002. In this note we argue that this gap was caused by a lack of preparation and experience of the authorities to appropriately communicate with the public during the...

One of the consequences of the euro changeover in 2002 was that for a period of several years people considerably overestimated actual inflation. The goal of this paper is to study whether misperceptions of this kind may have real effects, that is, whether they induce people to alter their...

The discrepancy between popular impressions of how the 2002 changeover to the euro affected prices and its actual impact is perhaps the most surprising consequence of the single currency’s introduction. Following the changeover, perceived inflation rose significantly and returned to its...

The discrepancy between popular impressions of how the 2002 changeover to the euro affected prices and its actual impact is perhaps the most surprising consequence of the single currency's introduction. Following the changeover, perceived inflation rose significantly and returned to its...

One of the consequences of the euro changeover in 2002 was that for a period of several years people considerably overestimated actual inflation. The goal of this paper is to study whether misperceptions of this kind may have real effects, that is, whether they induce people to alter their...

We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an...