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We examine whether central banks' voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010461227
We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy. First, we specify a theoretical model of central bank board decision-making and simulate the voting outcomes. Three different versions of model are estimated with simulated data: 1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389058
We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009566420
The article compares the social efficiency of monetary targeting and inflation targeting when central banks may have private information on shocks to money demand and the transparency solution is not feasible because of verifiability problems. Under inflation targeting and monetary targeting,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014173888
and the public. The main argument of this study is that the inflation target can be used as a signalling mechanism through … effective. I construct a Kalman filter algorithm to analyze the information and learning dynamics between the Central Bank and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113058
We analyse a simplified New-Keynesian model with an unobserved aggregate cost-push shock in which firms and the central bank have different information about the shock. We consider a linear policy rule where a pure inflation targeting central bank decides how much to react to the shock given its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027983
This paper investigates the performances of an inflation targeting regime in a learning economy whose functioning is …, we assume that their behaviour is guided by simple rules of thumb – or heuristics – while a continuous learning process … learning behaviour. Finally, the central bank implements an inflation targeting regime via a monetary policy rule. Our aim is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048357
This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies … adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771761
The New Keynesian model with rational expectations unrealistically predicts that unanticipated credible changes in the inflation target lead to an immediate jump in the inflation level while the output gap is unaffected. We set up a theoretical model where agents learn the behaviour of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014065326
active learning possibilities has effects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank. For a wide range of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055382