The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target. We present … a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation … inflation exceeded the target in the past. Moreover, the central bank responds non-linearly to past inflation gaps. This is …

inflation target and its exposure to political pressures. We apply our methodology to Brazil as well to highlight its advantages … based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an … the central bank’s ability to lower inflation expectations towards its inflation target via current interest rate …

estimation provides substantial evidence that the inflation and output preferences of the Fed have varied through time …

linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due … properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has … inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity …

This paper examines the properties of interest rate rules aimed at controlling aggregate price inflation. Policies are … compared in two models having either flexible or sticky inflation The latter is assumed to derive from a traditional, adaptive …-expectations augmented Phillips curve. The flexible inflation model derives from the modem view, due to Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977), that …

This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New … Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation … persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is …

. However, estimation across rolling windows indicates that the inflation and output preferences of the Fed have varied signi …

marked by a shift to a high-inflation regime in the early 1970s, which ended with Volcker's stabilization policy at the … know the policy regime, the fall of inflation and interest rates in the disinflation episode in the early 1980s is better …

shortfalls in inflation and output relative to exogenous trends, and the policy rate is kept at the ELB until the joint shortfall … is made up. Bernanke's second proposal adds only the cumulative inflation shortfall since the beginning of an ELB episode … directly to an otherwise standard Taylor rule. This cumulative shortfall in inflation from the 2 percent objective can be …