five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of … Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of …. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast - HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

shocks to the Bank of England's inflation and output projections on the term structure of UK private inflation expectations … proceed in three steps. First, we correct our dependent variables - market-based inflation expectation measures - for … potential risk, liquidity and inflation risk premia. Second, we extract exogenous shocks following Romer and Romer (2004)'s …