short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of … product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation … and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …