The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …

The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence … inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974 - April 2015. To … endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002) and Clemente …

terms for the coming 12 months from a survey sample and (2) the subjects' perceptions of what inflation had been over the … previous 12 months, again in continuous numerical terms. The data used here are for the period 1974 -77 when inflation reached … unusually high levels due to energy shocks after two decades of relatively modest price change. This provides a unique …

Understanding the formation of consumer inflation expectations is considered crucial for managing monetary policy …. Using a unique 'information' experiment embedded in a survey, this paper investigates how consumers' inflation expectations … respond to new information. We elicit respondents' expectations for future inflation before and after providing a random …

past-year food price inflation, or a median professional forecast of next-year overall inflation. Finally, inflation …Understanding the formation of consumer inflation expectations is considered crucial for managing monetary policy. This … paper investigates how consumers form and update their inflation expectations using a unique "information" experiment …

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and …

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between … inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004 ….For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a … small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation … expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core …