This paper studies the credibility and transparency of monetary policy. We characterize each FOMC meeting as a decision to ease, maintain, or tighten monetary policy and model decisions with ordered probit reaction functions. Policy is credible if the estimated models are significant functions...

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households’ implicit expectations of...

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households’ implicit expectations of...