How do firms form expectations about future inflation? We investigate this issue by exploiting the Survey of Inflation … of the wage setting process in Italy allows us to assess the reaction of inflation expectations to exogenous variation in … the cost of labour borne by firms. We find that firms' inflation expectations are significantly affected by contractual …

We investigate rationality of financial and real sectors' CPI inflation expectations in Turkey by using multivariate … proceed to analyze the significance of both past and future inflation rates as determinants of agents' future inflation … forecasts. Recursive estimates also show that forecasters' weight on future/target inflation rate versus past actual and …

This paper examines how homeownership status shapes attention to inflation and its impact on durable consumption. Using … randomized controlled trials on U.S. households (2021-2023), we document systematic heterogeneity in responses to inflation … variation in inflation expectations induced by the treatments, we find that homeowners adjust durable spending significantly …

Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no … findings. First, individuals in lower-inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This … also appear to be a source of information frictions: even when information about inflation statistics is made readily …

The popularity of inflation targeting has risen in the last decade and the number of countries that adopted inflation … targeting as their monetary policy framework surpassed 40 by the end of 2016. This study analyzes whether inflation targeting … around the world has been successful in terms of achieving the announced target and keeping inflation rate around it. We …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between … inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004 ….For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a … small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation … expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core …